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\begin{document}

\title{A Pathogen's Spatial Range is Not Constrained by Geographical Features
in the Flax Rust Pathosystem}



\author[1]{Keenan Duggal}%
\author[1]{Ian Miller}%
\author[2]{Juliana Jiranek}%
\author[1]{Jessica Metcalf}%
\affil[1]{Princeton University}%
\affil[2]{University of Virginia}%


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  \date{May 25, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Climate change and shifting environmental conditions can allow pathogens
to spread into previously unburdened areas. For plant pathogens, this
dynamic has the potential to disrupt natural ecosystem equilibria and
human agriculture, making predicting plant pathogen range shifts an
increasingly important enterprise. Although such predictions will hinge
on an accurate understanding of the determinants of pathogen range --
namely the environmental, geographical, and host range characteristics
that modulate local pathogen habitation -- few studies to date have
probed these in natural plant populations. Here, we characterize range
determinants for the model system of Lewis flax (Linum Lewisii) and its
pathogen, flax rust (Melamspora lini), in the Rocky Mountains. Transect
surveys were performed to assess three relationships: i) the effect of
geographical features -- elevation, slope aspect, slope grade, and
land-cover -- on flax presence and density, ii) the effect of
geographical features on flax rust presence and prevalence, and iii) the
effects of flax's local population density and metapopulation structure
on flax rust presence and prevalence. We found that flax population
density, but not host metapopulation structure, influences the
distribution of flax rust. Additionally, we showed that, while the
distribution of flax was broadly constrained to a relatively narrow
range of geographical and resulting environmental features, flax rust
was evenly distributed across the full range of settings measured. These
results indicate that a warming environment, which is expected to
modulate such features, may restrict the optimal range of the plant more
so than that of its pathogen. Importantly, our results also suggest that
even if flax shifts its spatial range to escape increasing climatic
pressures, flax rust will not face any significant barriers to track
this movement.%
\end{abstract}%



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\verb`Main_Document.docx`  available at \url{https://authorea.com/users/620999/articles/644755-a-pathogen-s-spatial-range-is-not-constrained-by-geographical-features-in-the-flax-rust-pathosystem}

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