Effects of individual collection biases on model
accuracy
Phenoclimate models derived from sample data that exhibited biases
towards collection of specimens proximate to the beginning or end of
their individual flowering periods exhibited higher MAE than models
constructed from specimens collected with no inherent bias, with mean
MAE among species exceeding 8 days in all cases (Fig. 5). However,
models constructed from specimens collected with a bias towards
collection of specimens proximate to their peak flowering DOY
consistently exhibited lower MAE than models derived from unbiased data
(Fig. 5). However, the effects of this form of bias are intrinsically
linked to individual flowering duration (with longer durations
associated with higher MAE); models produced from specimens exhibiting
bias towards collection of specimens shortly after onset or shortly
before termination exhibited greater accuracy and lower MAE among
species with 15- or 30-day flowering durations (Table S4) than among
species with 60-day durations.