Figure 2. Distribution of mean absolute error (MAE) among phenoclimate models of a) flowering onset DOY, b) median flowering DOY, and c) flowering termination DOY trained using simulated species exhibiting low (σ = 10 days), high (σ = 30 days), or variable intrapopulation variation in flowering DOY, as well as short (15 days), moderate (30 days), long (60 days) or variable individual flowering duration. Within each panel, groups of models associated with different letters exhibit statistically different mean MAEs among groups of taxa. Where statistically significant differences in MAE were detected, statistical significance was high (p < 0.001) in all cases.