Figure 3. Median MAE of modeled population-level onset, peak, and termination flowering dates. Blue lines correspond to phenoclimate models in which population-level phenological timing varied only with local climate (i.e., a No Noise scenario). Purple lines correspond to phenoclimate models in which population-level phenological timing exhibits unexplained variation of ± 5 days (i.e., a low noise scenario), while red lines correspond to phenoclimate models in which population-level phenological timing exhibit unexplained variation of ±15 days (i.e., a high noise scenario).