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\begin{document}

\title{Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Sudan-Sahel Region in West
Africa - Insights from Burkina Faso}



\author[1]{Windmanagda Sawadogo}%
\author[2]{Tiga Neya}%
\author[2]{Drissa Semdé}%
\author[3]{Joël Awouhidia Korahiré}%
\author[2]{Alain Combasséré Alain Combasséré}%
\author[2]{Traoré Do Etienne}%
\author[2]{Pamoussa Ouedraogo}%
\author[4]{Ulrich Jacques Diasso}%
\author[5]{Babatunde Joseph Abiodun}%
\author[6]{Jan Bliefernicht}%
\author[7]{Harald Günter Kunstmann}%
\affil[1]{University of Augsburg}%
\affil[2]{Secrétariat Permanent du Conseil National pour le Développement Durable Burkina Faso}%
\affil[3]{WHESYM Canada, B-82 Rue Saint-Henri, Gatineau, QC J8X2Y2}%
\affil[4]{Agence Nationale de la Météorologie du Burkina Faso (ANAM)}%
\affil[5]{University of Cape Town}%
\affil[6]{Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, 86159 Augsburg, Germany}%
\affil[7]{Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)}%


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  \date{May 30, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
The Sudan-Sahel region has long been vulnerable to environmental change.
However, the intensification of global warming has led to unprecedented
challenges that require a detailed understanding of climate change for
this region. This study analyzes the impacts of climate change for
Burkina Faso using eleven climate indices that are highly relevant to
Sudan-Sahelian societies. The full ensemble of statistically downscaled
NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 models (25 km) is used to determine the projected changes
for the near (2031-2060) and far future (2071-2100) compared to the
reference period (1985-2014) for different SSPs. Validation of the
climate models against state-of-the-art reference data (CHIRPS and ERA5)
shows reasonable performance for the main climate variables with some
biases. Under the SSP5-8.5, Burkina Faso is projected to experience a
substantial temperature increase of more than 4.3\selectlanguage{ngerman}°C by the end of the
century. Rainfall amount is projected to increase by 30\% under the
SSP5-8.5, with the rainy season starting earlier and lasting longer.
This could increase water availability for rainfed agriculture but is
offset by a 20\% increase in evapotranspiration. The country could be at
increased risk of flooding and heavy rainfall in all SSPs and future
periods. Due to the pronounced temperature increase, heat stress,
discomfort, and cooling degree days are expected to strongly increase
under the SSP8.5 scenarios, especially in the western and northern
parts. Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, the projected changes are much
lower for the country. Thus, timely implementation of climate change
mitigation measures can significantly reduce climate change impacts for
this vulnerable region.%
\end{abstract}\selectlanguage{ngerman}%



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