Figure 1: Estimate of transmission dynamics of the Monkeypox epidemic in Beijing between 2023-05-31 and 2023-06-21 . (A) Effective reproduction number (Re); (B) Dispersion parameter (k).
Since 2023-06-21, Mpox has continued to spread in Beijing, with 81, 54, and 42 newly confirmed cases reported in July, August, and September respectively. Since there were no daily incidence data during this period, we turned to simulation to project the transmission dynamics. By assuming the serial interval as before, we found that the reported confirmed case data from July to September were close to the simulated data with the R e as 0.95 and 1.0 (Figure 2B), suggesting that the average effective reproduction number was likely to fell in the range of 0.95 to 1.0 during this period. This result was robust to the variation both in the dispersion parameter k(Figure 2) and in the serial interval parameters (Figure S1).