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\begin{document}

\title{Investigation and control strategy for canine distemper disease on
endangered wild dog species: A model-based approach.}



\author[1]{Selim Reja}%
\author[1]{Sinchan Ghosh}%
\author[2]{Indrajit Ghosh}%
\author[1]{Ayan Paul}%
\author[1]{Sabyasachi Bhattacharya}%
\affil[1]{Indian Statistical Institute}%
\affil[2]{Indian Institute of Science}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 23, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
The canine distemper virus is a major threat to the already endangered
wild dogs. We propose an evidence-based mathematical model of canine
distemper in the wild to predict the rate and possibility of disease
spread under a different scenario. We find the endemic and disease-free
equilibrium points and the condition for their stability from the model.
The bifurcation analysis of the model shows how the endemic equilibrium
can be transformed into the disease-free equilibrium through parameters
that represent fundamental ecological properties. The sensitivity of
these parameters to the secondary disease spread points out the specific
interaction rates and a birth rate that should be targeted to reduce the
CDV outbreak. We suggest target parameters for controlling the disease
outbreak considering the plausibility of manipulating them in terms of
implications besides the sensitivity of the parameters. Finally, this
article proposes two specific control strategies based on this modeling
framework: isolation and birth-control-reintroduction. Since the
isolation strategy may be cost-intensive, we modify our model to
quantify the isolation rate necessary to reduce the disease outbreak. We
suggest that the birth-control-reintroduction strategy based on the
proposed model is cost-effective for a small contaminated area.%
\end{abstract}%



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