Critical Environmental Variables and Rationale
Precipitation emerged as a key environmental driver of Chinese pangolin
distribution in our study. Larger-scale studies in regions like China
and East China had also highlighted a significant positive correlation
between precipitation and potential suitable habitats for pangolins (Ta
et al., 2021; Yang et al., 2018), suggesting a widespread climatic
influence. This link was likely due to the interconnectedness of
precipitation with the distribution of pangolin’s primary food
sources—ants—and local human activity patterns. While other areas
might prioritize variables like the mean temperature of the warmest
quarter (bio10) and precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18)
(Sharma,Rimal, et al., 2020), our findings highlighted the distinct
ecological dynamics at the county scale. Overall, climatic factors
played a dominant role in influencing pangolin distribution.
The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index for March (NDVI0321) ranked
second in influence, with a contribution rate of 16.5% (see Table 2).
Pangolins, primarily feeding on ants and termites, thrived in healthy,
dense vegetation (Sharma,Sharma, et al., 2020; Tamang et al., 2022),
correlating with higher NDVI values. This suggested a robust dependency
on vibrant ecosystems for food sourcing and shelter (Acharya et al.,
2021; Sharma,Rimal, et al., 2020; Thapa et al., 2014). Moreover, NDVI
indicators reflected the critical ecological period of March,
potentially aligning with key pangolin activities such as foraging and
breeding. This highlighted the crucial role of maintaining healthy
vegetation for the survival of pangolins and other wildlife.
Slope, contributing 15%, was identified as the third most influential
factor. This correlation might have been attributed to the improved
drainage on sloped terrains, essential for maintaining dry burrows
during rainy seasons, and the provision of natural cover against
predators. Furthermore, sloped areas typically experienced less human
disturbance, offering a more stable habitat (Acharya et al., 2021). Our
study demonstrated the nuanced relationship between pangolin habitat
preferences and topography.
Proximity to water sources, although contributing only 2.86%, was
noteworthy. Rivers, as consistent water sources, were vital for pangolin
survival. Moist soils near rivers fostered abundant food resources,
crucial for pangolin sustenance (Katuwal et al., 2017). This factor
underscored the importance of riverine habitats in pangolin conservation
strategies.
Lastly, the minimal contribution of distance from roads at 0.22% should
not have been overlooked. Roads facilitated human access, and in the
context of illegal poaching—a significant threat to pangolins (IUCN,
2023)—this variable gained importance. Our findings resonated with
studies from regions like Dhankuta, Ilam, and Terai in Nepal (Katuwal et
al., 2017; Shrestha et al., 2021), where road proximity significantly
influenced pangolin distribution. This suggested roads might serve as
critical ecological corridors, highlighting the need for targeted
conservation measures.
In summary, this study offered groundbreaking insights into the habitat
suitability and conservation needs of Manis pentadactyla, emphasizing
the role of climatic, vegetative, topographical, and anthropogenic
factors in shaping its habitat preferences. The comprehensive approach
taken here set a precedent for future wildlife conservation research and
policy development at a localized scale.
Conservation Strategy
Recommendations
In this pioneering study, we utilized an integrative approach combining
field surveys, remote sensing data, and ecological modeling, to assess
the distribution and conservation status of the Chinese pangolin at a
detailed county level. This approach established a groundbreaking
framework for research and policy development on endangered species at
the county level. Our analysis detailed the proportions of suitable
habitat distributions within and outside the nature reserve (refer to
Table 3). Notably, nine vital administrative villages outside the
reserve accounted for significant portions of moderately and highly
suitable habitats. By incorporating these areas into conservation
management plans, we were able to effectively cover 62% of moderately
suitable and 75% of highly suitable habitats (as illustrated in Figures
3B and C). We recommended the inclusion of these villages in the design
of new pangolin reserves and emphasized the importance of policy
advocacy and intensified monitoring. Special attention was needed to
prevent deforestation and illegal poaching in primary habitats, crucial
for the survival of pangolins (Tinsman et al., 2023). Given the
significant correlation identified between pangolin consumption and
poaching (Bashyal et al., 2021; Emogor et al., 2023; Nash et al., 2016),
promoting community awareness and conservation policies in these areas
was essential.
Our projections for Mingxi County (2021-2040) indicated an expected
increase in the Chinese pangolin’s habitat distribution (see Figure 4).
This anticipated expansion, likely due to increased precipitation from
rising temperatures and positively correlated with pangolin distribution
(Ta et al., 2021; Yang et al., 2018). Under China’s stringent
conservation policies, this habitat expansion offered promise for an
increase in the pangolin population. The forecasted habitat extension,
particularly in the eastern regions of Mingxi County like Xiayang
Township and Hufang Town, underscored the necessity for strategic
conservation planning. However, risks posed by global warming and
population growth necessitated a careful consideration of these threats
(Gao et al., 2022), emphasizing the need for focused monitoring and
policy intervention over the next two decades.
This study provided a clear, applicable research model for county-level
administrative units in China, particularly valuable in areas with
existing reserves. With the Chinese pangolin being a critically
endangered and flagship species, our study’s approach aimed to inspire
similar conservation efforts across various administrative levels. We
encouraged local governments and reserve managers to apply our
methodology, significantly contributing to the protection of pangolins
and other endangered species. In light of recent discoveries in pangolin
species (Gu,Wu, et al., 2023), the urgency of field surveys was
emphasized, advocating them as a priority in conservation efforts.
MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS
This research undertook a groundbreaking and detailed assessment of the
distribution and conservation status of Chinese pangolin (Manis
pentadactyla ) at a county-level scale, integrating comprehensive field
surveys, cutting-edge remote sensing technologies, and sophisticated
ecological modeling approaches. Conducted in Mingxi County, Fujian
Province, China, this study innovatively utilized the Biomod2 integrated
model to project potential habitat distributions for pangolins, shedding
light on the intricate impacts of diverse environmental variables on
their spatial distribution. Key discoveries encompassed:
- Within the confines of this county-scale investigation, precipitation
was identified as the pivotal environmental determinant affecting the
distribution of the Chinese pangolin, aligning with the findings from
broader geographical studies. This underscored the vital linkage
between pangolin survival, reproductive behavior, and the distribution
of their primary food source, ants, in relation to climatic
conditions.
- The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index for March (NDVI0321) and
the terrain’s slope emerged as other critical environmental factors,
illustrating the essentiality of robust and dense vegetation along
with specific topographical features for pangolin habitation.
- The study also revealed that a substantial proportion of the highly
and moderately suitable habitats for pangolins in Mingxi County, both
inside and external to the nature reserve, remained insufficiently
safeguarded, particularly in nine crucial administrative villages.
The outcomes of this investigation highlighted the imperative for
developing and executing targeted conservation strategies for
endangered species like the Chinese pangolin at a county level.
Anticipated habitat expansions for pangolins, particularly in the
eastern sectors of Mingxi County, due to climate change, accentuated
the urgency of enhancing protective measures in key habitat zones,
critical to the species’ prolonged survival. Furthermore, the study
advocated for the intensification of public education and community
participation to mitigate illegal poaching and foster pangolin
conservation. In summary, this research not only offered invaluable
scientific evidence for the effective preservation of the Chinese
pangolin but also served as a significant exemplar and benchmark for
the protection of endangered species in regions worldwide.ACKNOWLEDGMENTSThis work was supported by The Special Fund for Wildlife Protection of
the National Forestry and Grassland Administration of China
(HZ2022026-2023).CONFLICT OF INTEREST
STATEMENTThe authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.Author contributionsLiu Wei and Xie yanping designed the study; Nie Xiaoxiao, Chen
Fengjiao, Guo Ning, Zhang Yong, Xiao Shuping and Huang Yanbin
performed the experiments; Liu Wei, Nie Xiaoxiao and Xie Yanping
analyzed the data; Liu Wei, Nie Xiaoxiao and Xie yanping wrote the
manuscript.DATA AVAILABILITY
STATEMENTAdditional supporting information (Appendix 1) may be found on line in
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Legend
Table 1. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve
(AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) values of ten modelling algorithms
used in this study.