Challenges in Evaluating Adaptation Projects
\label{challenges-of-evaluation-of-climate-change-adaptation-projects}The evaluation of projects constitutes an essential element of the
adaptation process. Successful adaptation will be assessed by how well
different measures and interventions contribute to effectively reducing
vulnerability and building resilience within a specific context. Lessons
learnt, good and bad practices, gaps and needs identified during the
evaluation of completed projects will inform new ones, creating an
iterative adaptation process based on continuous learning. Given the
complexity and long-term nature of climate change, adaptation should be
designed as a flexible process subjected to periodic review and if
necessary corrections. The implementation of adaptation needs to be
evaluated regularly and revised in terms of both the validity of the
underlying assumptions and the appropriateness of the measures and
interventions undertaken (UNFCCC 2010).
In order to shed light on the challenges related to the evaluation of
adaptation process, it is necessary to understand their particular
nature and key characteristics. Given a specific historical climate
baseline, there is a coping range within which a system (i.e. a
community, an urban area, an economic sector, an ecosystem) is able to
deal with climatic variability. By way of illustration, some years are
naturally wetter than others, but for the most part rainfall does not
exceed the amount that the system under consideration can tolerate.
However, beyond these thresholds the system is vulnerable. The coping
range is a measurement of the resilience of the system. Under the
backdrop of a changing climate, which implies the modification in the
means and variability of crucial climatic variables, the normal
resilience of the system is under stress and the existing coping range
is no longer as suitable. There is therefore a need to adapt to changing
conditions and this can be achieved by implementing specific adaptation
measures. It can be argued that the essential aim of adaptation projects
is to expand the coping range of the system by implementing measures
that reduce exposure and sensitivity or increase adaptive capacity (GEF
2008).
The problem is that adaptation projects are not implemented in a vacuum
and climate variability is not the only factor affecting the coping
range of the system. Other key variables (e.g. socio-economic
conditions, political context, governance arrangements, demographics,
availability of infrastructure services) play a fundamental role in
determining the ability of the system to cope and these are also
constantly shifting thereby altering the coping range. As a result of
this condition, the project baseline which is used to evaluate
adaptation interventions, has to take into account not only future
climate scenarios and their potential impact but also the evolution of
socio-economic, political, institutional and technological dimensions of
the system.
This is just one of the reasons why evaluating adaptation projects is
inherently complex and fraught with difficulties, without considering
the fact that adaptation interventions tend to cut across many sectors,
are implemented at different scales, over different timescales, and take
a broad range of approaches (from hard structural adaptation measures,
to soft policy measures). Even though conventional evaluation
methodologies remain applicable to evaluating adaption projects’
progress and results, their particular nature and characteristics call
for ad hoc approaches.
On the one hand, the evaluation of adaptation projects may be
characterised by conventional methodological challenges, which
characterise the evaluation of all developmental projects. For example,
there may be general capacity issues due to the low level of technical
capacity available or the scarce financial resources for implementing
sound and robust evaluation frameworks, baseline data or historical
trends may not be available, and it may be difficult to attribute a
particular effect or impact to a certain adaptation intervention due to
the lack of a counterfactual. On the other, adaption projects present
some additional methodological challenges that derive from their
particular nature and characteristics. These will be reviewed in some
detail below (GEF 2011, UKCIP 2011, UNDP 2007, UNFCCC 2010, World Bank
2005, World Bank, 2010).