Biological models were first applied to Polynesian migration in the 2000 paper Language trees support the express-train sequence of Austronesian expansion, which attempted to answer the
Contemporary linguists have attempted to solve these competing theories using phylogenetic models based on Bayesian inference, and application of MCMC algorithms. Language Phylogenies Reveal Expansion Pulses and Pauses in Pacific Settlement (2009) builds on lessons learnt in classical lexicostatistics and glottochronology: It uses a relatively short word list (210), and extensively curated it before modelling began. Linguists established cognates between 400 languages and creating
A consensus tree was created using a Metropolis-Hastings based algorithm , from a posterior probability distribution comprised of 4,200 trees. Language evolution was modelled as single cognate gain/loss. The consensus tree provided more evidence of Dempwolff's original theory of the singular oceanic language group. The consensus tree also agreed with Grace et al's positioning of the Polynesian languages nested within the Central-Pacific subgroup. The research provides evidence for a Taiwanese origin of migration through Melanesia, and pause/pulse theory of migration. With an initial refractory period before rapid expansion out of Taiwan through Melanesia, with a second pause occurring once the Polynesians arrived at Samoa.
both this and Language trees support the express-train sequence of Austronesian expansion.
Summary diagram
From all of these pieces of data, a cumulative map of Polynesian migration: