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Evaluating Watershed Hydrological Responses to Climate Changes at Hangar Watershed, Ethiopia.
  • Abdata Galata,
  • Kiyya Tullu,
  • Abebe Guder
Abdata Galata
Jimma University Institute of Technology
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Kiyya Tullu
Jimma University Institute of Technology
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Abebe Guder
Jimma University Institute of Technology
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Abstract

The aim of this study is to model the responses of Hangar watershed Hydrology to future climate changes under the two Representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Future changes in precipitation and temperature were produced using output of dynamically downscaled data of Regional Climate Model (RCM) 50 Km resolution under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for 2025-2055 and 2056-2086. The future projection of the RCM model of climate parameters showed an increasing trend relative to the base period (1987-2017). At 2025-2055 an annual average precipitation increment of +15.7% and +19.8% expected for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively. For 2056-2086 of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, also similar trend showed in which change in average annual precipitation may increase by +20.1% and +23.4% respectively. The changes of climate parameters used as input in to SWAT hydrological model to simulate the future runoff at the out let of gauging station. The increment in precipitation projection resulted in positive magnitude impact on average runoff flow. The average annual change in runoff at 2025-2055 of both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 may by +260.01m3/s and +733.18m3/s respectively. At 2056-2086, change in average annual runoff of +257.08m3/s and +732.26m3/s for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 may expected respectively. This increment may create an opportunity for community of the area to harness enough amount of water during most increased season for later use.