Using the Markov Model to simulate and predict the land use change
in1992-2030 in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China
Abstract
The land use changes directly reflected the economic and environmental
development status of the region in a certain period, and the indicator
can be applied in analyzing the role and economic benefits of various
administrative departments. The Yangtze River Economic Belt, China is
one of the “three major strategic development regions at the national
level” implemented by the nation. The Markov prediction model was
introduced to simulate the land use changes in the region and the
average accuracy of the simulation was 99.54%. In the simulation the
four regional development stages from 1992 to 2018 were identified in
the model: primitive development, rapid urban expansion priority,
ecological restoration priority and equilibrium on urban expansion and
ecological restoration. Various scenarios with different transition
probability matrix were characterized on diverse socio-economic
conditions. The mean values were introduced in the prediction model. The
land use changes in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in 2020-2030 were
predicted and the characteristics of the changes in various scenarios
were analyzed so as to provide scientific suggestions for decision
makers on the sustainable utilization of the land in the densely
populated and ecologically sensitive area.