Abstract
The conventional flood control design analysis usually focuses on a
specific aspect like flood peak discharge or the volume of flood, with
the development of technology, hydrological analysis tends to be
multi-dimensions research. The multivariate frequency analysis of a
flood has been widely investigated, while there is lack of literatures
about flood control design under multiple floods. In this study, taking
the Guiping Shipping Hub as a study case, a Copula-based approach is
proposed to investigate the flood control design under multiple floods,
comparison between the proposed method and conventional approach is
investigated, the sampling uncertainty is analyzed. The results indicate
that (1) the joint distribution of main and tributary floods is modeled
by Clayton Copula with PE3 as the best-fit marginal distributions. The
proposed Flood Control return period (FC-RP) can describe the different
role of main and tributary floods in flood control design. (2) flood
combinations uncertainty analysis indicates that the uncertainty of the
joint design combinations under the effect of multiple floods decreases
with the increase of sample size n, but increases with the increase of
the design return period. (3) the 95% confidence interval and standard
deviation of the design value of flood control design water level
calculated by Flood Control RP is smaller than that of OR RP, which
means the Flood Control RP can reduce the uncertainty of flood control
design under the condition of multiple floods.