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Carvedilol to prevent decompensation of liver cirrhosis in patients with clinically significant portal hypertension stratified by novel non-invasive model
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  • Xiaolong Qi,
  • Chuan Liu,
  • Hong You,
  • Qing-Lei Zeng,
  • Wong YJ,
  • Bingqiong Wang,
  • Ivica Grgurevic,
  • Bingtian Dong,
  • Wei Gou,
  • Shenghong Ju,
  • Hyung Joon Yim,
  • Qian Yu,
  • Masashi Hirooka,
  • H. Enomoto,
  • Amr Hanafy,
  • Zhujun Cao,
  • Xiemin Dong,
  • Young Kul Jung,
  • Tae Hyung Kim,
  • Yohei Koizumi,
  • Yoichi Hiasa,
  • Takashi Nishimura,
  • Hiroko Iijima,
  • Chuanjun Xu,
  • Xinru Guo,
  • XiaoLin Lan,
  • Changxiang Lai,
  • Shirong Liu,
  • Fang Wang,
  • Ying Guo,
  • Jiaojian Lv,
  • Jie Li,
  • Liting Zhang,
  • Yuqing Wang,
  • Erhei Dai,
  • Qing Xie,
  • Chuxiao Shao,
  • Zhensheng Liu,
  • Federico Ravaioli,
  • Antonio Colecchia,
  • Gaojun Teng
Xiaolong Qi
Southeast University Zhongda Hospital Department of Radiology

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Chuan Liu
Southeast University Zhongda Hospital Department of Radiology
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Hong You
Capital Medical University Affiliated Beijing Friendship Hospital
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Qing-Lei Zeng
The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University
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Wong YJ
Changi General Hospital
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Bingqiong Wang
Capital Medical University Affiliated Beijing Friendship Hospital
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Ivica Grgurevic
Sveuciliste u Zagrebu Medicinski fakultet
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Bingtian Dong
First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University
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Wei Gou
Qingdao Sixth People’s Hospital
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Shenghong Ju
Southeast University Zhongda Hospital
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Hyung Joon Yim
Korea University Ansan Hospital
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Qian Yu
Southeast University Zhongda Hospital
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Masashi Hirooka
Ehime Daigaku Daigakuin Igakukei Kenkyuka Igakubu
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H. Enomoto
Hyogo Ika Daigaku Byoin
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Amr Hanafy
Zagazig University Department of Internal Medicine
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Zhujun Cao
Shanghai Jiao Tong University Medical School Affiliated Ruijin Hospital
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Xiemin Dong
Qingdao Sixth People’s Hospital
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Young Kul Jung
Korea University Ansan Hospital
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Tae Hyung Kim
Hallym University Sacred Heart Hospital
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Yohei Koizumi
Ehime Daigaku Daigakuin Igakukei Kenkyuka Igakubu
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Yoichi Hiasa
Ehime Daigaku Daigakuin Igakukei Kenkyuka Igakubu
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Takashi Nishimura
Hyogo Ika Daigaku Byoin
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Hiroko Iijima
Hyogo Ika Daigaku Byoin
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Chuanjun Xu
The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine
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Xinru Guo
North China University of Science and Technology School of Electrical Information and Light Industry
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XiaoLin Lan
Lishui City People's Hospital
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Changxiang Lai
Shenzhen Third People’s Hospital
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Shirong Liu
Qufu People's Hospital
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Fang Wang
Shenzhen Third People’s Hospital
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Ying Guo
Third People's Hospital of Taiyuan
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Jiaojian Lv
Lishui City People's Hospital
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Jie Li
Nanjing University Medical School Affiliated Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital
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Liting Zhang
Lanzhou University First Hospital
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Yuqing Wang
Southeast University Zhongda Hospital
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Erhei Dai
North China University of Science and Technology School of Electrical Information and Light Industry
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Qing Xie
Shanghai Jiao Tong University Medical School Affiliated Ruijin Hospital
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Chuxiao Shao
Lishui City People's Hospital
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Zhensheng Liu
Qingdao Sixth People’s Hospital
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Federico Ravaioli
Orto Botanico Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia
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Antonio Colecchia
Orto Botanico Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia
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Gaojun Teng
Southeast University Zhongda Hospital
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Abstract

Objective: To develop a novel non-invasive model for CSPH, and investigate whether carvedilol could reduce the risk of decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified by the novel model. Methods: International multicenter observational study with a median follow-up time of 38 months. Three cohorts were included in study from 6 countries. In this study, a total of 1,304 patients were fulfilled diagnosis of liver cirrhosis. Patients were treated with carvedilol in longitudinal carvedilol-treating cohort. The primary outcome was the development of the first hepatic decompensation . Results: Six studies from the meta-analysis were involved (n=819), and LSM and platelet count (PLT) were identified as independent risk factors of CSPH, with pooled risk ratios of 1.10 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-1.15) and 0.99 (95% CI 0.98-0.99). A novel model was established. In HVPG cohort (n=151), the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the novel model, ANTICIPATE model, and Baveno VII criteria for CSPH were 0.91 (95% CI 0.86-0.95), 0.80 (95% CI 0.73-0.87), and 0.83 (95% CI 0.77-0.89). The novel model narrows down the grey zone to 22.5%, significantly lower than 50.3%, using Baveno VII criteria (p<0.001). In follow-up cohort (n=1,102), the cumulative incidences (1.7% vs 2.5% vs 15.8%) of decompensation events were significantly different by using the novel model cutoff values of >0, 0 to -0.68 (medium-risk), and <-0.68 (p<0.001). In the carvedilol-treating cohort, the patients with high-risk CSPH stratified by the novel model (treating cohort, n=51) had significantly lower rates of decompensation than those of NSBBs untreated patients with high-risk CSPH (n=613 before propensity score matching [PSM], n=102 after PSM, all p<0.05). Conclusion: A novel model provides stratification for CSPH and decompensation in patients with liver cirrhosis. Treatment with carvedilol significantly reduces the risk of decompensation among high-risk CSPH patients stratified by the novel model.