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Disentangling climate change trends in Australian streamflow
  • Rutger Vervoort,
  • Michaela Dolk,
  • Floris van Ogtrop
Rutger Vervoort
The University of Sydney
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Michaela Dolk
Swiss Re Management (US) Corporation
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Floris van Ogtrop
The University of Sydney
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Abstract

The effect of climate change on water resources has been an area of continued research, especially in Australia. Previous studies have suggested significant trends in rainfall, and these are amplified causing larger changes in streamflow. However, most of the previous analysis was based on annual time scales or modelled data and did not account for changes in land cover, which could interact with changes in climate. Climate data and streamflow data sourced from 13 fully forested small catchments (<250 km2) was analysed for trends. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend analysis, generalised additive mixed modelling and rainfall-runoff modelling were combined for the analysis. This indicates consistent increases in maximum temperature and varied decreases in rainfall. Limited to a small number of catchments in south eastern Australia there were small, but significantly amplified, decreases in streamflow. In general, overall decreases are much smaller than predicted in earlier research.

Peer review status:IN REVISION

20 Apr 2020Submitted to Hydrological Processes
22 Apr 2020Assigned to Editor
22 Apr 2020Submission Checks Completed
22 Apr 2020Reviewer(s) Assigned
29 Aug 2020Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
30 Aug 2020Editorial Decision: Revise Major