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Validation of the demographic Fetal Medicine Foundation Risk Calculator in predicting singleton antepartum stillbirth -- A retrospective case-control study
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  • Dana Muin,
  • Karin Windsperger,
  • Nadia Attia,
  • Herbert Kiss
Dana Muin
Medical University of Vienna Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology
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Karin Windsperger
Medical University of Vienna Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology
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Nadia Attia
Medical University of Vienna Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology
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Herbert Kiss
Medical University of Vienna Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology
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Abstract

Objectives: To externally validate the demographic setting of the online Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) Stillbirth Risk Calculator based upon maternal medical and obstetric history in a case-matched cohort. Design: Retrospective case-control study Setting: Tertiary referral hospital Population: 144 fetuses after singleton intrauterine fetal death (IUFD) and a matched control group of 247 singleton live births between 2003 and 2019 Methods: Nonparametric receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis was performed to predict the prognostic power of the risk score and to generate a cut-off value to discriminate best between the events of stillbirth versus live birth. Main Outcome Measures: FMF Stillbirth risk score Results: The IUFD cohort conveyed a significantly higher overall risk assessment with a median FMF Stillbirth risk score of 0.45% (0.19-5.70%) compared to live births [0.23% (0.18-1.30%); p<0.001]. Demographic factors mainly contributing to the increased risk were BMI (p=0.002), smoking (p<0.001), chronic hypertension (p=0.015), APS (p=0.017), type 2 diabetes (p<0.001) and need for insulin (p<0.001). ROC analysis to evaluate the discriminative ability of the FMF Stillbirth Risk Calculator showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.72 (95% CI 0.67–0.78; p<0.001). The FMF Stillbirth risk score at a cut-off level of 0.34% (OR 6.22; 95% CI 3.91–9.89; p<0.001) yielded a specificity of 82% and a sensitivity of 58% in predicting singleton antepartum stillbirths. Conclusion: The FMF Stillbirth Risk Calculator achieved a similar performance in our cohort of women as in the reference group.