Montane snowpack is a vital source of water supply in the Western United States. However, the future of snow in these regions in a changing climate is uncertain. Here, we use a large-ensemble approach to evaluate the consistency across 124 statistically downscaled snow water equivilent (SWE) projections between end-of-century (2076 – 2095) and early 21st century (2106 – 2035) periods. Comparisons were performed on dates corresponding with the end of winter (15 April) and spring snowmelt (15 May) in five western US montane domains. By benchmarking SWE climate change signals using the disparity between snow projections, we identified relationships between SWE projections that were repeatable across each domain, but shifted in elevation. In low to mid-elevations, 15 April average projected decreases to SWE of 48% or larger were greater than the disparity between models. Despite this, a significant portion of 15 April SWE volume (39 – 93%) existed in higher elevation regions where the disparities between snow projections exceeded the projected changes to SWE. Results also found that 15 April and 15 May projections were strongly correlated (r 0.82), suggesting that improvements to the spread and certainty of 15 April SWE projections would translate to improvements in later dates. The results of this study show that large-ensemble approaches can be used to measure coherence between snow projections and identify both 1) the highest-confidence changes to future snow water resources, and 2) the locations and periods where and when improvements to snow projections would most benefit future snow projections.

A document by Nicholas D. Lybarger. Click on the document to view its contents.

Measurements of biophysical tree properties and hydrologic fluxes are necessary for improving models and monitoring the impact of disturbances. Prior research has demonstrated that measurements of tree sway frequency can be used to quantify important ecohydrologic processes, such as drought stress and snow interception, that otherwise require expensive measurement techniques. However, existing instruments used to measure tree sway lack spatial scalability. We investigate whether the virtual vision sensor and multilevel binary thresholding video processing algorithms can be used to accurately extract tree sway frequency at multiple points in a video camera field of view and enable scalable measurements of ecohydrologic processes. Comparing sway frequencies extracted from video and accelerometer data at two sites, we show that for 30-60 s videos, the video processing algorithms can reproduce accelerometer sway frequencies with ±0.03 Hz accuracy. The results suggest that video processing algorithms may be suitable for applications where changes in sway frequency are on the order of tenths of hertz or larger, for example the measurement of snow in trees. Further work is needed to clarify the accuracy of the algorithms when applied to longer videos, which may be required to monitor processes with more subtle changes in sway frequency, such as diurnal changes in tree water content.

Rainwater is a vital resource and dynamic driver of terrestrial ecosystems. Yet, processes controlling precipitation inputs and interactions during storms are often poorly seen, and poorly sensed when direct observations are substituted with technological ones. We discuss how human observations complement technological ones, and the benefits of scientists spending more time in the storm. Human observation can reveal ephemeral storm-related phenomena such as biogeochemical ‘hot moments’, organismal responses, and sedimentary processes which can then be explored in greater resolution using sensors and virtual experimentation. Storm-related phenomena trigger lasting, oversized impacts on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes, organismal traits/functions, and ecosystem services. We provide examples of phenomena in forests, across disciplines and scales, to inspire mindful, holistic observation of ecosystems during storms. We conclude that technological observations alone are insufficient to trace the process complexity and unpredictability of fleeting biogeochemical or ecological events without the “shower thoughts” produced by scientists’ human sensory and cognitive systems during storms.

Snowpack accumulation in forested watersheds depends on the amount of snow intercepted in the canopy and its partitioning into sublimation, unloading, and melt. A lack of canopy snow measurements limits our ability to evaluate models that simulate canopy processes and predict snowpack and water supply. Here, we tested whether monitoring changes in wind-induced tree sway can enable snow interception detection and estimation of canopy snow water equivalent (SWE). We monitored hourly tree sway across six years based on 12 Hz accelerometer observations on two subalpine conifer trees in Colorado. We developed an approach to distinguish changes in sway frequency due to thermal effects on tree rigidity versus intercepted snow mass. Over 60% of days with canopy snow had a sway signal in the range of possible thermal effects. However, when tree sway decreased outside the range of thermal effects, canopy snow was present 93-95% of the time, as confirmed with classifications of PhenoCam imagery. Using sway tests, we converted significant changes in sway to canopy SWE, which was correlated with total snowstorm amounts from a nearby SNOTEL site (Spearman r=0.72 to 0.80, p<0.001). Greater canopy SWE was associated with storm temperatures between -7 C and 0 C and wind speeds less than 4 m/s. Lower canopy SWE prevailed in storms with lower temperatures and higher wind speeds. We conclude that monitoring tree sway is a viable approach for quantifying canopy SWE, but challenges remain in converting changes in sway to mass and further distinguishing thermal and mass effects on tree sway.

The Snow Ensemble Uncertainty Project (SEUP) is an effort to establish a baseline characterization of snow water equivalent (SWE) uncertainty across North America with the goal of informing global snow observational needs. An ensemble-based modeling approach, encompassing a suite of current operational models, is used to assess the uncertainty in SWE and total snow storage (SWS) estimation during the 2009-2017 period. The highest modeled SWE uncertainty is observed in mountainous regions, likely due to the relatively deep snow, forcing uncertainties, and variability between the different models in resolving the snow processes over complex terrain. This highlights a need for high-resolution observations in mountains to capture the high spatial SWE variability. The greatest SWS is found in Tundra regions where, even though the spatiotemporal variability in modeled SWE is low, there is considerable uncertainty in the SWS estimates due to the large areal extent over which those estimates are spread. This highlights the need for high accuracy in snow estimations across the Tundra. In mid-latitude boreal forests, large uncertainties in both SWE and SWS indicate that vegetation-snow impacts are a critical area where focused improvements to modeled snow estimation efforts need to be made. Finally, the SEUP results indicate that SWE uncertainty is driving runoff uncertainty and measurements may be beneficial in reducing uncertainty in SWE and runoff, during the melt season at high latitudes (e.g., Tundra and Taiga regions) and in the Western mountain regions, whereas observations at (or near) peak SWE accumulation are more helpful over the mid-latitudes.

When formulating a hydrologic model, scientists rely on parameterizations of multiple processes based on field data, but literature review suggests that more frequently people select parameterizations that were included in pre-existing models rather than re-evaluating the underlying field experiments. Problems arise when limited field data exist, when “trusted” approaches do not get reevaluated, and when processes fundamentally change in different environments. The physics and dynamics of snow interception by conifers, including both loading and unloading of snow, is just such a case. The most commonly used interception parameterization is based on data from four trees from one site, but field study results are not directly transferable between environments. The process varies dramatically between locations with relatively warmer versus colder winters. Here, we combine a comprehensive literature review with a model to demonstrate essential improvements to model representations of snow interception. We recommend that, as a first and essential step, all models include increased loading due to increased adhesion and cohesion when temperatures rise from -3 and 0°C. The commonly used parameters of a fixed maximum value for loading and an e-folding time for unloading are not supported by observations or physical understanding and are not necessary to reproduce observations. In addition to unloading based on physical processes, such as wind or canopy warming, all models must represent melting of in-canopy snow so that it can be unloaded in liquid form. As a second step, we propose field experiments across climates and forest types to investigate: a) a representation of the force balance between adhesion and cohesion versus gravity for both interception efficiency and rates of unloading, b) wind effects during and between storms, and c) lubrication when snow melts. For greatest impact, this framework requires dedicated field measurements. These processes are essential for models to accurately represent the impacts of dynamically changing forest cover and snow cover on both global albedo and water supplies.