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A preliminary probabilistic multi-hazard assessment for Ceboruco volcano (Mexico)

Robert Constantinescu

and 6 more

Ceboruco (2280 m.a.s.l.), in the western Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, is considered among the most hazardous volcanoes in Mexico. Some 55,000 people and important infrastructure (e.g. hydroelectric dams; highways; railways) lie within the area covered by deposits of Holocene eruptions. A diverse activity over the past 1000 years spans from effusive (e.g. andesite lava flows, dacitic domes) to explosive (e.g. Strombolian, Vulcanian and Plinian eruptions). With a poor monitoring network, a first hazard map was published in 2019. Here we present the first probabilistic hazard maps for Ceboruco, which constitute a progression towards a more quantitative hazard assessment. We conduct a probabilistic hazard assessment using the pyBET_VH (Bayesian Event Tree for Volcanic Hazard) tool (i.e. software implementation of the event-tree scheme), which allows the user to estimate and visualize the probabilities and uncertainties associated with volcanic phenomena. pyBET_VH merges information from eruptive history, expert elicitation, and the output of other computer models to produce probabilistic hazard maps (i.e. absolute and conditional probabilities and associated uncertainties). We present the probability hazard maps for each eruptive scenario (i.e. Scenario 1 – small magnitude effusive eruption; Scenario 2 – medium magnitude effusive and/or explosive eruption (VEI<3), and Scenario 3 – large magnitude Plinian eruption) and the associated uncertainties. Such maps can be used by civil authorities and stakeholders for the purpose of crisis management as well as for long-term development strategies by visualizing the probabilities of areas around the volcano likely to be impacted by volcanic phenomena. Using pyBET_VH has advantages and disadvantages: the reliability of the output maps is directly related to the quality of the input data, but the tool allows easy estimation and visualization of the uncertainties; being an interactive tool, the user can continuously update the probability maps as new information becomes available.