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Investigation and control strategy for canine distemper disease on endangered wild dog species: A model-based approach.
  • +2
  • Selim Reja,
  • Sinchan Ghosh,
  • Indrajit Ghosh,
  • Ayan Paul,
  • Sabyasachi Bhattacharya
Selim Reja
Indian Statistical Institute
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Sinchan Ghosh
Indian Statistical Institute
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Indrajit Ghosh
Indian Institute of Science
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Ayan Paul
Indian Statistical Institute
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Sabyasachi Bhattacharya
Indian Statistical Institute

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Abstract

The canine distemper virus is a major threat to the already endangered wild dogs. We propose an evidence-based mathematical model of canine distemper in the wild to predict the rate and possibility of disease spread under a different scenario. We find the endemic and disease-free equilibrium points and the condition for their stability from the model. The bifurcation analysis of the model shows how the endemic equilibrium can be transformed into the disease-free equilibrium through parameters that represent fundamental ecological properties. The sensitivity of these parameters to the secondary disease spread points out the specific interaction rates and a birth rate that should be targeted to reduce the CDV outbreak. We suggest target parameters for controlling the disease outbreak considering the plausibility of manipulating them in terms of implications besides the sensitivity of the parameters. Finally, this article proposes two specific control strategies based on this modeling framework: isolation and birth-control-reintroduction. Since the isolation strategy may be cost-intensive, we modify our model to quantify the isolation rate necessary to reduce the disease outbreak. We suggest that the birth-control-reintroduction strategy based on the proposed model is cost-effective for a small contaminated area.